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18
2024
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11
Who is "dueling" with the energy powerhouse to achieve the fastest growth?
"The output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above designated size reached 373 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%."
Not long ago, during the press conference on the economic operation of Xinjiang in the first three quarters of 2024, it was revealed that this raw coal output ranks fourth in the country, with the highest growth rate nationwide. Meanwhile, Xinjiang's raw coal output accounts for 10.73% of the national total, an increase of 0.92 percentage points compared to last year.
This further conveys Xinjiang's "confidence" in challenging the order of traditional energy provinces. Over the past five years, Xinjiang's annual raw coal output has soared from 153 million tons in 2018 to 457 million tons in 2023, ranking alongside Shanxi (1.357 billion tons), Inner Mongolia (1.211 billion tons), and Shaanxi (761 million tons) as one of the four major coal-producing regions in the country, with expectations to surpass Shaanxi during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Just two days ago (November 4), data from the State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Company’s power dispatch control center showed that from January to October 2024, Xinjiang's new energy power generation reached 100.36 billion kilowatt-hours, breaking the 100 billion kilowatt-hour mark for the first time in a year, with a year-on-year increase of 36%.
In recent years, Xinjiang's coal, wind, solar, and other new and old energy resources have ranked among the top in the country. However, due to factors such as location, transportation, and development progress, it has not been prominent among traditional energy provinces. Now, with coal in one hand and wind and solar in the other, what challenges will this bring to traditional energy provinces?
Coal "surge"
Not long ago, a freight train loaded with 3,500 tons of coal departed from the Zhundong Station on the Ujiang Railway, delivering thermal coal to local power plants in Qinglongxia, Ningxia, to meet winter energy supply needs. This also marks that Xinjiang's coal transportation via rail has surpassed 70 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 51.7%, with both volume and growth rate reaching historical highs.
This is also a microcosm of coal leaving Xinjiang, driving a significant increase in raw coal output. "It has resources and is a rising star, so its production capacity is rapidly increasing." Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that Xinjiang's previous performance was not outstanding mainly because it was "too far away," but now the optimization of transportation channels and the growth of market demand are important factors driving its coal output growth, "this is not beyond our expectations."
In recent years, based on the Lanzhou-Xinjiang Railway, Xinjiang has successively implemented capacity expansion and renovation of the Ujiang Line, constructed the Jiangnao Line, and expanded the Geku Railway in Xinjiang, forming a "main and two wings" railway corridor (with the Lanzhou-Xinjiang Railway as the main corridor, the Linhe to Hami Railway as the northern corridor, and the Golmud to Korla Railway as the southern corridor), greatly enhancing the capacity for coal transportation out of Xinjiang.
For example, in September, the Hongnao Railway achieved electrification and began operations, increasing its capacity from 40 million tons to 60 million tons.
According to data from the Urumqi Railway Bureau Group Co., Ltd., Xinjiang's coal transportation volume has increased from 9.947 million tons in 2017 to 60.227 million tons in 2023, more than a sixfold increase. Especially after the transportation volume exceeded 20 million tons in 2020, it has maintained an average annual increase of 10 million tons.
This year, Xinjiang's coal transportation volume is expected to reach 90 million tons, an increase of about 30 million tons compared to last year, and 80% of the annual target has already been completed.
As an important base for coal development and reserve utilization in the country, Xinjiang has a predicted reserve of 21.9 trillion tons, accounting for about 40% of the national predicted coal resource amount, and its resource advantages are accelerating the transformation into production capacity advantages and economic advantages.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2024, the raw coal output of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang was 934 million tons, 950 million tons, 573 million tons, and 373 million tons, respectively, contributing 81.42% of the national output. Over the past five years, the four major coal-producing regions' share of the national total has increased by 4.59%, with Xinjiang's share increasing by 4.38%.
In 2018, Xinjiang's raw coal output was 153 million tons, accounting for 4.31% of the national total; in 2023, Xinjiang's raw coal output was 457 million tons, accounting for 4.57% of the national total. This rapid increase in scale and share is a reflection of Xinjiang's coal surge, and some media have even judged that "the center of China's energy map has quietly shifted westward."
In Lin Boqiang's view, Xinjiang is still far behind major coal-producing provinces like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in terms of scale, but "the proportion is slowly catching up." The main issue for Xinjiang's coal is cost; as transportation capacity strengthens, the coal from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is "getting more expensive to mine," and Xinjiang's coal output will continue to rise.
"Surpassing Shaanxi is definitely not a problem, but surpassing Shanxi and Inner Mongolia should not be achievable in the short term, as Xinjiang's scale is still relatively small at present," he said.
Betting on "wind and solar"
From a national perspective, the four major coal-producing regions are moving towards "differentiation."
In the first three quarters of this year, the GDP of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang was 1.75 trillion yuan, 1.79 trillion yuan, 2.48 trillion yuan, and 1.45 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 5.8%, 4.6%, and 5.8%.
Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang showed impressive growth rates, while Shanxi and Shaanxi "unfortunately" lagged behind the overall market. This is also consistent with the current trend of coal output; in the first three quarters, the raw coal output growth rates for Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia were 17.4% and 4.6%, respectively, while Shanxi and Shaanxi had growth rates of -8.2% and 2.2%.
Especially as coal prices have not yet exited the downward cycle, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are betting more heavily on wind and solar compared to Shaanxi and Shanxi, which has become a very important support for economic growth.
In the first three quarters of this year, the new energy power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size in Inner Mongolia reached 134.7 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%; Xinjiang's power generation reached 374.508 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.92%, of which new energy power generation reached 90.786 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 24.24% of Xinjiang's total power generation, with a year-on-year increase of 34.9%.
Of course, this is also supported by the continuously rising installed capacity of new energy. By the end of September this year, Xinjiang's new energy installed capacity had reached 80.47 million kilowatts, including 38.76 million kilowatts of wind power and 41.71 million kilowatts of solar power, accounting for 50.54% of Xinjiang's total installed capacity.
In recent years, Xinjiang has built the Hami, Zhundong, and Southern Xinjiang Circular Tarim 10 million kilowatt-level new energy bases, with more than 80 million kilowatts of new energy under construction. It is expected that by the end of 2024, Xinjiang's new energy installed capacity will exceed 100 million kilowatts.
To a certain extent, new energy power generation is becoming the largest power source and the main contributor to power generation growth, as well as an important support for the west-to-east power transmission. Data shows that since Xinjiang began power delivery 14 years ago, the cumulative power delivery has exceeded 800 billion kilowatt-hours, with new energy accounting for nearly 30%, and this proportion is continuously increasing.
On October 30, Three Gorges Energy announced that it, along with companies like Yangtze Power, plans to participate in the construction of the Xinjiang Southern Taklamakan Desert New Energy Base Project (hereinafter referred to as the "Southern Base Project") through its subsidiaries, which includes the construction of 8.5 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power and 4 million kilowatts of wind power, with a total dynamic investment of 71.848 billion yuan. This not only supports the energy structure transformation in the Southern Xinjiang region but also accumulates experience for the development of "desert" resources nationwide.
It is particularly noteworthy that this is an integrated external delivery project of "wind, solar, fire, and storage," planning to construct 8.5 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power and 4 million kilowatts of wind power at the southeastern edge of the Taklamakan Desert in Ruoqiang County, Bazhou, Xinjiang, along with the construction of 6×660,000 kilowatts of coal power and 5 million kilowatt-hours of new energy storage.
According to expectations, after the project is completed, it is estimated that it can deliver about 36 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to the Sichuan-Chongqing region each year, further alleviating the contradiction between China's resource endowment and the geographical distribution of electricity load.
This is also a microcosm of the accelerated transformation of wind and solar resources in Xinjiang. With more and more "wind and solar" projects being put into operation, Xinjiang is gradually benefiting from both coal and new energy sectors, accumulating confidence to challenge the energy powerhouse pattern.
Reconstructing the industry
Electricity sales are a "barometer" for measuring regional economic development. "In the first three quarters, the electricity sales of the Xinjiang power grid reached 155.358 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 20.19%, ranking first among the 27 provincial companies of the State Grid Corporation of China, and maintaining high growth continuously."
This set of data from State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. reflects the strong momentum of economic development in Xinjiang. In particular, the electricity sales of the secondary industry reached 100.196 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 22.78%, accounting for 64.49% of the total electricity sales of the Xinjiang power grid during the same period, conveying a signal of rapid industrial economic development.
Among them, strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy and new materials, and green mining industry clusters saw electricity sales increase by 16.99% and 12.52% year-on-year, respectively, showing remarkable performance.
This year, the Xinjiang government work report proposed to focus on "eight major industrial clusters" and actively build a modern industrial system with Xinjiang characteristics and advantages. Based on resource endowment, location advantages, and industrial foundation, it aims to promote the construction of a number of major industrial projects worth 100 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan at the autonomous region level, striving to create several industrial bases that align with national strategies, have significant characteristic advantages, and possess core competitiveness.
This also conveys Xinjiang's determination to accelerate the competition for national industrial bases. For Xinjiang, which is rich in energy resources and has a traditional industrial structure that is heavily weighted, how to accelerate the creation of a modern industrial system? Currently, the "roadmap" has been determined.
First, it is necessary to consolidate and enhance advantageous industries, focusing on oil, gas, and coal. Accelerate the promotion of oil and gas reserves and production, release advanced and high-quality coal production capacity, and continuously extend the industrial chain downward, ensuring that every piece of coal, every drop of oil, and every cubic meter of gas achieves maximum utility.
Secondly, cultivate and expand emerging industries, opening up new tracks for clean energy. Accelerate the construction of clean energy bases such as wind and solar power, continuously promote the large-scale and intensive development of new material industries such as silicon-based and aluminum-based, and vigorously build a new power system to achieve coordinated development of photovoltaic "blue," desert "yellow," and ecological "green."
Third, transform and upgrade traditional industries to stimulate new green and low-carbon momentum. Accelerate digital and intelligent transformation, vigorously support enterprises in introducing new technologies and models, promote equipment updates and process upgrades, and continuously improve the "gold content," "green content," and "intelligence content" of manufacturing.
Making good use of these "resource assets" is also key to building a modern industrial system in Xinjiang.
Not long ago, the groundbreaking ceremony for the National Energy Group Hami Energy Integrated Innovation Base Project, with a total investment of about 170 billion yuan, was held in the Chahaquan Industrial Park in Hami City, Xinjiang. Liu Guoyue, chairman of the National Energy Group, stated that the group will fully leverage the three roles of state-owned central enterprises in technological innovation, industrial control, and safety support, positioning Xinjiang as the most important strategic development area and a fertile ground for innovation and entrepreneurship, and will spare no effort in ensuring the construction of the Hami Energy Integrated Innovation Base Project.
Expressions like "most important" and "spare no effort" also convey the signal of central enterprises' firm commitment to Xinjiang. Information from the Autonomous Region State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission shows that by the end of 2023, the number of branches established by central enterprises in Xinjiang reached 2,552, with total assets amounting to 2.37 trillion yuan; the cumulative number of investment projects exceeded 52,000, with a completed investment amount of 553.8 billion yuan.
On July 28, at the central enterprise industry promotion meeting held in Kashgar, Xinjiang, 25 central enterprises signed contracts for 183 projects with Xinjiang, with an expected industrial investment of nearly 940 billion yuan in Xinjiang by the end of 2028...
Such a scale of cooperation between central and local governments will further activate Xinjiang's rich coal, wind, and solar energy resources. With more and more projects worth hundreds of billions being launched, the "eight major industrial clusters" such as oil and gas production and processing, green mining, and new energy and new materials in Xinjiang are accelerating iteration, reconstructing the "four beams and eight pillars" of a modern industrial system.
With oil, gas, and coal in one hand and wind and solar power in the other, the past stories of energy powerhouses "racing ahead" are also being rewritten.
Daily Economic News
The four major coal-producing regions in the country.,Oil, gas, and coal
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